Recession - recovery cross road

South Africans will learn whether or not the country has officially exited its recession when Stats SA releases its third quarter growth figures at 11:30 on Tuesday.

The economy slipped into a recession – or two successive quarters of negative growth – after contracting by a restated 2.6% in the first quarter and by 0.7% in the second.

Analysts and economists who sent their GDP projections to Fin24 expect the data to show positive growth, meaning SA will have excited the recession.

Investec economist Lara Hodes expects Tuesday’s economic indicators to signal a modest rebound of 1.5% growth.

“The lift in third quarter GDP growth momentum is, in the main, expected to have been underpinned by positive growth in the manufacturing and trade sectors. In contrast, the primary sector of the economy is expected to have under-performed,” she said.

Investec expects the agriculture sector to have contracted for the third consecutive quarter, however, principally on the back of lower than expected maize production.

It’s also thought unlikely that mining will positively influence GDP data, given repeated annual decreased in production.

FNB chief economist Mamello Matikinca said growth could reach 2.3% for the quarter, driven by by the retail and finances sectors.

“The expected growth number does not alter our full-year GDP forecast of just 0.7% as the year-on-year numbers remain exceptionally weak,” she said.

News24